Bracket Breakdown- Here is a quick look at the brackets for the opens, it’s a long read but with many schools on vacation I thought I would provide a little something to marinate on in the week leading up to the opens.  I focused only on the championship bracket analysis for now, stay posted for a top 6 pick-em style predictions later in the week.  Good luck to everyone training, stay healthy and go get ‘em this weekend, you don’t get too many chances to wrestle at the Opens.

106- Kevin Jack is the top dog here and rightfully so after a dominant season that has included an Eastern States Classic victory and a LL championship.  The battle to see who faces him in the top half semi final will be interesting.  Old Lyme Freshman Lyiam Mathis is the S champ but will be challenged off the bat with the winter of Tyler Mirando (Southington) and Tim Orrell (Farmington) in possible the tournaments first taste of the damage a 4th through 6th place finisher from a strong class can do.    I look for the upset with the Mirando/Orrell winner to move past Mathis and take on Hand’s Matt Elias.  In that quarter I see Elias, who has been wrestling tough to move on to the semis in a hard fought win.

            The bottom half of the 106 bracket should be highlighted by a possible quarter final between M champ Devon MarcAurele (Ledyard) and LL runner up Pascal Medor (Westhill).  MarcAaurele has handled everyone (except East Lyme’s L champ Kareem Small) he has faced this year since coming over from prep school, but Medor is a tough customer, giving New Milford’s Conor Kirekgard all he could handle in the semi finals last year.  MarcAurele is tough on top and I look for him to control a decision over Medor and move into the semis.  The aforementioned Small should handle business in the bottom and make the semis to set up another battle with MarcAurele.

            In the semis I see Kevin Jack continuing his fine form and winning handily of Elias.  In the other match up, Small has bested MarcAurele already this year in some hotly contested contests.  I like MarcAurele and think he can pull it off as it is difficult to keep beating good wrestlers in rematches, but I am going to go with Small to move into the finals in a close decision.  Unfortunately for the underdog lovers, I think Jack stays on track in the finals and cruises past Small for the Open title, the Danbury sophomore should be well positioned to make a run at New Englands.

113- Conor Kiregard headlines this field after his Open and New England titles at 106 last year and his strong campaign so far this season.  He should mnove unchallenged into the semi finals.  Who meets him will be an interesting battle as all the guys are capable, but I will go with South Windsor’s talented sophomore Conor Caffrey to get by M champ Michael Ruffino (Windham) and square off with Kirkegard in the top half semi.

            The bottom half is a little more balanced with a bunch of guys capable of reaching the finals.  S champ Dylan Martel (Griswold) will have his hands full with Newinton’s Brian Amato in the quarters, a match we see Amato taking to move into the semis.  LL champ Will Chowanek (Xavier) will also have a tough quarter with Matt McAllister (Bacon Academy).  Chowanek will move on in a low scoring bout to meet Amato in the semis.

            In the top half, much like 106, Kirkegard will move smoothly into the finals.  In the bottom half Amato will look to get past Chowanec who has been a tough out since coming down from 120.  I like Chowanec and think he wrestle a tough smart style, but for some reason I am thinking Amato will break through and make the finals in one of the best bouts of the entire tournament.  In the finals I see a similar outcome to the LL final that Kirkegard controlled, winning 4-0.  Expect another performace like that from Kirkegard as one of the states best light weights as he takes his second Open championship. 

120- This a weight with a couple top flight competitors.  Top seed and returning Open/NE champion Tyler Keane (Glastonbury) sits as the 1 seed and will move into the semis over some unfortunately overmatched competitors who will battle it out to move into the top 4 in the consolations.  Who faces Keane in the semis should come down to a match between L runner-up Andrew Carignan and S chanmp Riley Donlon.  I don’t know a ton about Donlon who came out of a relatively wide open weight at the S meet, while Carignan was teched by Will Crisco of Hand in the L final.  It should be a competitive match, flip a coin to pick the winner.

            On the bottom half there is again more parity in the bracket.  Chris Elrod seems poised to make the quarters where he is likely to meet LL runner up Zach Tepper of Danbury.  I have been a fan of both guys since seeing them at Danbury Holiday earlier this season and this should be a match of conflicting styles with Elrod looking to win the takedown battle and Tepper looking to grind on top.  I ll take Tepper in a close one as I think Danbury will be fired up as a team to bounce back off last weeks tough showing at the LL.  2nd seeded L champion Will Crisco (Hand) should cruise into the semis with Tepper.

            Keane will overpower whoever emerges to face him in the top half, as will Crisco in the bottom as both have been very impressive late in the season.  This final will be one of the most talented match ups CT has seen in a while as both are talented and extremely experienced technical wrestlers.  I like Crisco from neutral but Keane is a senior and has won it before, I think Keane gets it done in a 7-4 ish decision denying Crisco, one of the most talented underclassmen in the state, a title for the second straight year.

126- Geovanni Medina (New Britain) is your top seed here after a HUGE win over Cody Keane (Glastonbury) in the LL finals.  He could get a tough test from Hand’s Flanagan in the round of 16 as the Tiger senior rounds into form after being injured earlier in the year.  I see Medina moving on and then getting by Dustin Falco (Griswod) in the quarters.  Sean Kellet (Shelton) is your L champ and is the favorite to meet Medina in the semis.  He will need to get by Howard Kilpatrick of Bacon Academy in the quarters Saturday morning but should survive and move into the Semis.

      Thanks to Medina’s win over Keane, the bottom half is stuck with a  returning open champ to deal with in the Glastonbury senior.  Unfortunately for S number 1 Eric Manuel he will see Keane in the quarters, and I expect Keane to win that match and move into the semis.  Foran’s Carl Luth is the M champ and headlines the bottom of the bracket, but things get interesting with the addition of M number 6 Taylor Grauer (Windham).  There has been a lot of debate about how he ended up defaulting to 6th, but it doesn’t matter, when healthy Grauer is a threat to almost anyone at this weight.  In my upset special I see Grauer moving into the quarters to face Luth and turning the bracket on its head by winning and making it to the semi-finals.

       The first semi between Medina and Kellet should be a great match between two guys who love to scrap and scramble.  Kellet has been strong all year but I am going with the hot hand in Medina to move on to the finals after winning an entertaining, possibly high scoring bout.  I seem Grauer’s luck running out in the bottom half as he runs into a determined Cody Keane who will control the match and move on to the finals.  In one of the most charged matches of the night we will get LL finals rematch of a battle where Medina got the pin in OT.  Expect a hotly contested contest and in a big win for smaller programs everywhere, Medina holds on to bring a state open title back to New Britain, denying Keane his second title.

132- Is the year for Windham Junior Miguel Calixto?  He was edged in a great semi with Tyler Tilbe his freshmen year and nearly took down Eddie Carroll to win at the buzzer in the finals last year.  Calixto is a great athlete and has been dominant lately, he will handle Chris Catanzaro of RHAM to move into the semi finals.   S champ David Colvin (OSW) will look to make it through in the bottom half.  Check out a possible tough match in the round of 16 between LL runner up Favion Williams (Hartford) and L third place finisher Justin Elias (Hand).  Elias is nails on top and could pull an upset here as he will be getting battle tested in practice with the like sof Crisco and Jake Savoca.  Elias has beaten Colvin once this year and we see him holding that result to move into the semis with Calixto.

      The bottom half of this bracket belongs to Ben Pierre Saint (Stamford).  He is a returning finalist and will look to get back to the big show.  He will get by Josh Fontanez of Portland to make the semis.  He should meet Paroah Eaton of Warde there who has the inside track to the semis as well.

      In case it were a secret, this is Calixto’s weight to lose and we see him dominating in the semis, look for a pin or tech early in this one.  Down low Eaton is a game competitor but Pierre Saint is almost impossible to score on and has been steadily improving his offense, he wins convincingly and moves on to face Calixto.  This final will have the most raw quickness of any weight and could have some fun scrambles.  I would love to pick the senior Pierre Saint who has been close in the past, but ultimately Calixto is too tough overall and wins a decision, finally securing his first open championship.

138-  Brandon Walsh (Griswold) is another strong favorite here as a returning open and New England champion.  Look for Walsh to move into the semis with a win over Shane Jennings (Danbury) who will wrestle out of the pigtail round past Tucker MacGregor of Hand into the quarters.  Life is more interesting in the second half of the top bracket.  M champ Jake Eliades has his hands full, look for Brendan Butler of Xavier to make the upset here in a battle of tough sophomores and move into the quarters to face Joey Battinelli fresh of a close win over Ian Curtis of New Milford.  Battinelli has seemingly been around forever and edges Butler on experience to move into the Semis with Walsh.

      For once the bottom half of the bracket has less of the unpredictability.  Trumbull senior Ben Anderson should move past Brandon Finney of Ledyard in the quarters and sit in the semis.  Who he faces there is a real question mark.   Ray Laudato had a great L tournament, taking home the title and has the hot hand, I think he gets by S runner up Dylan Jefferis (Gilbert) to set up a date with Anderson.

            Walsh continues his fine form and smokes Battinelli up top, while Anderson follows suit in the bottom semi.  In the finals I think Anderson can keep it close with his strong frame and mat wrestling skills but Walsh is too tough.  The Griswold stud is on a different level and will control the match for the win and another open title.

145- if you were debating heading to New Haven for the action this weekend, 145 will make it worth the time.  This weight is incredibly talented and boasts 4 legitimate title contenders all spaced evenly in the bracket.  Up top Sam Odell (South Windsor) is the top seed and should get by Tom Millaras (Waterford) into the semis.  He should meet Anthony Terlizzi (New Milford) there as the Green Wave senior looks to bounce back from a L finals loss to Jake Savoca of Hand.  No disrespect to S champ and 4 seed Steve Persson (Oxford) but Terlizzi will rumble into the semis on a mission.

            On the bottom Foran’s M champ will have his hands full with Johnny Bello of Conard in the quarters.  Bello should move on to the semis looking to make the finals for a possible rematch with Odell who beat him in the LL finals 5-0.  Your 2nd seed is L champ Jake Savoca (Hand).  Savoca avenged a midseason loss to Terlizzi in the L finals and looks to be on fire.  We see LL #3 Ryan Butler getting by S runner up Anthony Oroato (OSW) to reach the quarters where Savoca will repeat his SCC finals performance and win a solid decision.

            These semis will be some of the best wrestling of the tournament, look for all these guys to open it up and pull no punches in their effort to make the finals.  Up top we have Odell and Terlizzi in a battle of different styles  Odell control the match and has great fundamentals while Terlizzi has some funky hips and looks to create a scramble every now and then.  As I have said about Terlizzi before he is a winner, and I think he moves on to to the finals in a somewhat goofy, but definitely entertaining and hard fought win.  Down low Bello will run into the machine-like Savoca.  The Hand Junior has a great motor and will look to push the pace in neutral and grind on top, he will be too much for Bello and we will get a class L rematch in the finals.  Terlizzi and Savoca are 1-1 vs. each other this year, with Savoca winning the L final 6-5.  To me it looks as though Savoca has the offensive technique to score at will on Terlizzi and needs to avoid scrambles and getting turned.  It will be a great match and we see Savoca keeping up his defense and strong position enough to get a close win.

152 -  this is another really talented weight with a few guys who could stand atop the podium.  Returning champ Lucas Muntz (Conard) looks to stay strong after edging Casey Mitchell (South Windsor) at the LL meet.  He will take a decent test from John D’Agastino in the Quarters but will move to the semis.  In a tight quarter in the top half M runner up Mikey Amorando (New Fairfield) will meet L champ Kameron Bradshaw (New Milford)  Amoradno is a big 152 and if he has the gas tank to go all 6 minutes we like him to move into the semis here.

            The bottom half has some great early round match ups as well.  Look for  a huge quarter final between undefeated S champ Dalton Ahern (OSW) and Casey Mitchell (South Windsor).  Ahern is full of confidence on top but hasn’t been tested too much this year, while Mitchell has been through some tough battles, look for Mitchell to sneak into the semis.  Keep an eye on Danbury Freshmen Johnny Garcia in the other half of the bottom bracket.  The Hatter youngster has been a stubborn our all year and could get past Randy Boyne (Bristol Central) and find himself in the quarters against Jack McKeever of Brookfield.  McKeever should have the edge in experience and will move into the semis to face Mitchell.

            In what could be dubbed the year of the rematch we will have another there at 152.  Muntz should handle Amorando with tough riding skills and Mitchell will get by McKeever on the bottom half.  Muntz is quietly one of the top kids all around in the state and we see him getting  another open title in a tough win over Mitchell.

160- Tyler Cunningham (Xavier) is your top guy here and he should cruise into the semis with a comfortable win over Windham’s Devyn Pesta.  He will get the winner of Thomas Anania (Warde) and Khamri Thomas (Windsor Locks).  This will be an intriguing quarter as Anania is back from an injury that cost him a whole year while Thomas is one of the top freshmen in the state and seemingly doesn’t understand he should be having more trouble a young kid up at this weight.  I see Anania edging the young Thomas and moving on to face Cunningham.

            Alex Manwaring should move into the semis down low after getting by Fairfield Prep’s Joey Roberts.  Scott LaMarre of Terryville is the S champ and has quietly put together a really strong season.  He should handle business and move to the semis to set up another match with Manwaring after beating him earlier in the year.

            Cunningham should be on a mission this year after being narrowly defeated in the semis last year and I like him to power his way into the finals with a couple takedowns over Anania.   Down low LaMarre will battle Manwaring again. The Ledyard senior ahs always been a tough out and we like him to reverse his defeat and make the finals vs. Cunningham.  Cunningham nipped Manwaring 3-1 in their dual match and again we like Manwaring to reverse the result and continue his hot late season run, getting the win at 160 in a match that will have big team score ramifications.

170- Despite grumbling about the new weights depleting talent (maybe a little bit higher up) 170 is one of the premier weights of the tournament.  The top seed is Newington junior Chris Chorzepa, look for him to motor into the semis with a win over Dan Kursaz of Montville who will look to rebound from a poor day at the Ms with a win over Matt Tulba (Waterford) in the round of 16.  Who Chorzepa sees in the semis is up in the air.  S champ Elton Purvis (OSW) will look to beat Ryan Whittle (Greenwich) in the quarters and make it into the final 4.

            Joe Murphy of Avon, who owns a win over Chorzepa this year, will power into the semis relatively untested.  He should be expecting a showdown with talented junior Elliot Antler of Xavier in another high profile semifinal.

            Chorzepa will have an easier time with this semi opponent than with Kursaz and move into the finals.  Murphy/Antler will be a big time battle.  I see Murphy powering his way by the more technical Antler and matching up with Chorzepa in the final. I love watching Chorzepa, he is intense, aggressive and still technical and I think that will pay off as he will overwhelm Murphy at crucial situations under the lights and come away as the champion at 170.

182- Fire up the Carrillo show.  Middletown senior Devon Carrillo is the odds on favorite here.  He should handle an overmatched field and march into the semis with relative easy.  He will meet the winner of a solid quarter between Aaron Wing (Griswold) and Joel Wamser (Brookfield). 

            The Bottom half is highlighted by the athletic Sheldon Rhoden (Hartord) who should move into the semi finals as well.  Look for him to face the winner of Steve Wingard (Housatonic) and Mike Spellmen (Ledyard), a match I see Wingard winning.

            In the semis Carrollo will continue his dominance, making it look easy as he moves into the finals.  Down low, Rhoden and Wingard will have a good match, and for the sake of it we will take Wingard to get it done and set a date with Carrillo.  In what might be a campaign for Outstanding Wrestler look for Carrillo to score early and often from all positions as he dominates Wingard to win the title and cement himself as one of CTs best pound for pound and as real threat for  a New England crown. 

195 -  Top seed here is Brandon Riggins of Norwalk.  Riggins is big and fast, and should get by Zach Maxwell of Southington to make the semi finals in a match that could be relatively close.  He will look to match up with Jacob Whitehad of Killingly who should get by Nick Poulin of Windham who he out placed at the ECC tournament a couple weeks ago.

            Jake Whalen of Xavier will be cleared for a run to the semis with a possible tough match with Michael Cassin (Bristol Eastern) standing in his way.  If the Falcon big man can put together ra nice run it will be big for the team score.  Whalen will see either S champ Kyle Foster (Somers) or M runner up Steven Ghossaini (Barlow) who will battle it out to get into the semis and guarantee placement.

            Up top Riggins should handle business and move into the finals to face the winner of Whalen and Foster/Ghossaini.  Whalen should be fueled by the energy of his whole team who will likely be in the Hunt with Hand, Danbury and Ledyard for the team title and we like him to move into the finals to score big points for X.  Unfortunately Riggins will be too much in the final and he will get it done for Norwalk ending a really strong season from Whalen.

220- in another big weight for Xavier, they have the top seed in LL champion Sean Marinan who was an open finalist last year.  Marinan should have his way with Patrick Sawicki of Bacon and move into the semis.  Dueling for a spot with Marinan will be Xavier Kernozek of Windham who took third in the Ms, Ian Jones of Pomperaug who was an M finalist and S champ Christopher Joel Samboy of Classical Magnet.  I like Kernozek to battle through that half of the bracket and meet Marinan in the top semi.

            On the bottom M champ Josh Lawrence (Ledyard) will look to do well for the team score as well and get by the tricky Oswaldo Eddie Garcia of Danbury in the quarters and move into the semis.  Look for L champ Eric Tucker to power into the semis on the bottom as well over Joe Carbonaro of Oxford in the quarters.

            Marinan should handle Kernozek in the top semi as he is just an overall beast at this weight while Lawrence and Tucker will have a dandy in the other semi.  Both guys are strong and relatively technical and this match could go either way, in the end I think the team score motivation will give Lawrence the extra boost he needs to get into the finals.  In the finals, with again lots of team points at stake, Marinan should do what he needs to win this year and take home a title for Xavier.

285- When speaking about big men in CT, the conversation begins and ends with Hand’s Joe Demichele as the returning open and New England champ.  After an early season hiccup, a loss to MAU’s Joe Webb in 3OT, Demichele has been expectantly dominant.  If anyone can stay alive till the 2nd period in the first 2 rounds that will surprise me.  LL champ will look to make his way into the top semi to face the big man Demichele.

            On the bottom, M champ Wolfgang Fiasconaro of Windham (that is an awesome name) should make his way into the semis if he can beat another cool name in Mike Money of Fairfield Warde.  Christian Kaljulaid (Simbury) and Tyler Margison (Thomaston) should lock horns battling for the last semi spot.

            Of course Demichele will continue dominance in the semis, but Daly could survive the 6 minutes and lose a lopsided decision.  Fiasconaro is our pick in the other semi to move on to see Demichele.  No one is stopping the Hand big man this year, look for a big win and big celebration from the big man here, good luck at New England's Joe, avenge that loss.